Sunday, May 8, 2016

The presumptive presidential race- Trump v. Clinton-Why I think Clinton Will Win.

Hi guys,

So... good news. Ted Cruz has finally (finally!) dropped out of the GOP race. I'm really glad that he dropped out, since that leaves us one less unlikeable candidate to deal with... but now, we have...oh god...Trump gaining momentum. It does not alarm me, no no no, but... there is a strong feeling in my heart that he is not going to win the general election, Hillary will probably win over him in a heartbeat. You wanna know why? Well, here are some reasons why:

1.) Attacks on Clinton are usually not effective

Even though after his successful win in the Indiana primary has him saying that now he's going to focus on attacking Clinton, extremely aggressive though they may be, that strategy will not work at all. Clinton has fought off attacks with ease, and Trump will probably think that the best way of attacking her would be through her Wall Street and controversial email stuff, which is a bad idea- no one really cares about that stuff any more and it is not enough to harm her, y'know. And even if they attack her for her involvement in Whitewater and her husband getting involved in affairs, that won't work either-pretty much no one remembers the case that well and the fact that it has faded away and no one is interested about it anymore anyway. Clinton's a better campaigner and knows how to reach out to people in a general election, too, so that's a key disadvantage to Trump.

2.) Trump's problem with minorities and women (and pretty much everyone)

You simply cannot win an election nowadays without the support of women or minorities. Or when you are nearly disliked by everyone, for that matter. The case with Trump? Well, he has practically alienated many key voters in the election and in the Republican party, from the very start. He's racist and sexist. He's also alienated many evangelical christians (a vital part of the Republican voting block), pro-abortion and pro-life people, Mormons, Catholics, regular non-evangelical christians, people with disabilities, , the LGBT community, Jews, Muslims, Veterans, the list goes on. And even though his supporters are pretty d--n loyal, there is pretty much a large percentage of them who will turn against him in the General election, I'm sure of it. Clinton, though while she does have a problem with Millenials, would probably get a big majority of them to vote for her in the general election because many of them would be pretty liberal and against the idea of the, ahem, "architectural issue" surrounding the border states and Mexico.

3.) Something terrible will likely happen to Trump's campaign that will create disillusionment and turn some positive supporters against him.

Even though Trump is focusing on the general election campaign already, his company will probably lose lots of money due to his focus on the campaign, and then he will probably lose his investment, most of his institutions will collapse and then many of his supporters would turn against him, since then he would lose a lot of employers, and with that, anger will arise. That would be a big advantage for Clinton, since Trump's attacks would probably lose their power since he will have probably lost a lot of supporters. And there's also the protests, because Trump will probably not tone down his rhetoric, and the violence will probably escalate to the point where one of his supporters will hurt some other supporters or perhaps someone who is a crazy guy supports Trump and then goes on...uh...a big crime shoot-out at a fellow supporter's or some innocent folk's home. That would probably turn public opinion of him negative swiftly and quickly.

4.) Trump's relationship with Television debates

Let's face it... Trump is a terrible debate person on national TV. He practically never answers the questions posed by the people who host the debates, and most of the debates are on Fox News or CNN, where he is not favored by the people there at all and he has a fierce, almost fiery rivalry with Megyn Kelly, which is genuinely terrible since she's probably at half of those events anyway. Also, when he does answer questions, the answers tend to have no relation to the subject matter anyway. Clinton, on the other hand, is a great debater and would probably beat him in a television debate should she be pitted against him. And also, Trump does not even bother to show up to half of the debates anyway, which would hurt him pretty badly in a general election.

5.) Pretty much no one in a general election would support a guy who wants to build a border wall or who wants to throw pro-abortion and pro-life people in jail. And who has also offended many religious groups.

Honestly, this one does not need much explanation. Should he stick to his plan of campaigning on a platform for a wall, he will alienate states with a large latino population or is located in the liberal northeast or West Coast. He will lose an especially large amount of votes in the southwest, which has states close to the border. Especially in Texas, where they have a large Mexican-American population and even though they have a problem with Mexican immigrants, they probably would not be supportive of the idea of a wall being built to stop it. He has also offended many religious groups and leaders, and since he's offended the baptist and other sections of evangelical christianity, which has a very heavy influence in the South and Midwest, since many of his policies don't agree with their views and his abortion policy has been heavily criticized for its harshness by not just members of the pro-abortion movement, but also pro-life people. That makes up a heavy percentage of the voting block, which is not good news for a Republican candidate in a general election. And most of the electoral college members loathe Trump, which is not good. Clinton has more sensible policies, and even though many evangelicals dislike her, they would probably vote for her over Trump because of more agreeableness. And he's also unpopular with Mormons, so that will cost him Utah dearly.

6.) His approval ratings in a general election are pretty low.

Though the news may make it seem like otherwise, Trump is actually not that popular than you think he is. His general election approval ratings are terrible, ranking at just 12%. That is not a lot. On the other hand, Clinton's approval ratings are fantastic! She would crush him just by that. Do not trust the polls.

7.) Both nominations will create divisions within their parties, but will damage the Republican party in particular.

It's pretty clear that both parties are facing a split in divisions, but the Democratic party doesn't seem to be that severe when it comes to the wideness of the division and the damage that has been done. The GOP on the other hand... whoo boy. To say that it has been damaged beyond repair is an understatement. Nearly everyone knows that. A large amount of the Republicans know that they would probably suffer a crushing defeat should Trump get the nomination, as the division will be too wide that it prevents the amount of votes and turnout that the Republicans need to win the white house. The guy who is the chairman of the RNC says that he wants unity, no matter what the candidate. Well, guess what? There is no way the party will unify by now. It's just hopeless.

8.) Trump's running mate choice will probably be disastrous.

You know that McCain/Palin blow that created embarassment back in '08? I have a high feeling (almost a premonition) that Trump, being the person that he is, will pick a running mate that will alienate many people away from the general election even more (if he ever does it, which there is a highly likely possibility that he won't). God forbid if it is a person who was once involved in the KKK or if it is someone whom everyone (even Trump supporters) dislikes... If he picks Ted Cruz or even Marco Rubio or, lord forbid, Ben Carson, he's toast. And if he picks of all people Chris Christie, since he has a relative who made mean comments about the South, that will not do him good. And if he picks a running mate who is a staunch opposer to him, they would probably walk out on him at the last minute. Clinton, on the other hand, will probably pick a running mate who is agreeable and good, i'm sure of it.

9.) Trump will probably say something really offensive towards rural types in the future... and his rhetoric style will fail big-time against debates with Hillary Clinton.

Look, here's the thing. Trump's rhetoric and "common man" speaking style kinda-sorta works in a primary setting, but in a general election setting...uh...not so much. With more liberal and conservative types (many, many, MANY conservatives hate Trump with vehemence) at stake, Trump could put off many people. He's already disliked widely in the Baptist church congregation... their leader just stated for the members not to vote for Trump in the election (mind you, this is the largest protestant section of the United States churches, and it is big in the South and Midwest, that will cost him voters). And also, he will probably make an offensive statement on TV about rural type people and poor people (I am sure of it), because...well...he's that predictable. And even though she has, ahem, questionable ties to "Wall Street", Clinton already has pretty strong support amongst the rural types, and with an offensive comment made by Trump, it will get bigger.

10.) Trump is horrifically terrible at foreign policy.

Listen, whatever you guys may think about the Iraq War decision, we can all agree that Hillary Clinton was actually a pretty good secretary of state. Trump, well...he is not very good with world affairs. And...uh...many world leaders and diplomats do not get along with Trump very well. And with the complicated situation involving DPRK and nukes that has the whole world apparently panicking (Honestly? No. Won't happen. Them nuking us won't happen), Trump's positions...won't work well in trying to tell the nation not to worry in case of a future calamity occurring. He also knows nothing about the middle east, and he'll probably advocate for further involvement (which no one really wants, to be honest) and end us up further into deep doodoo and cause us a second great recession (He doesn't even seem to be the least bit concerned, and treats it as if it is no big deal)). No one wants that, so they'd probably lean towards Hillary's side in a heartbeat.

11.) Trump is an attention whore... and general election people will catch on to that.

I heard from my dad that there was this interview with a person that was involved in the Trump campaign said that Trump actually ran as a so-called "protest candidate" and did not necessarily want to be president, but let his ego get in the way and look where he is now. He thrives on attention, and soon, since the very liberal newspapers are very good at empowering candidates they support, the press will viciously attack and begin a successful smear campaign against him. I think people will tire of his antics, and that will cause him to lose popularity. Clinton, though... is a genuinely down to earth person, and she's not an attention whore at all, so that gives her an advantage.

That's my stuff for now, folks! See ya soon!

No comments:

Post a Comment